Vitamin Report Aug, 2024
Looking back on the past ten years, vitamin price fluctuations have basically completed a cycle. From 2013 to 2018, under the background of China's environmental protection inspections, the start-up of various types of vitamin companies was restricted to varying degrees, and due to factors such as superposition of failures, vitamin prices rose one after another. The most typical one was folic acid. From May 2014 to May 2015 The price of folic acid increased from 215 yuan/kg to 3100 yuan/kg. In addition, the reason for the increase in the price of some vitamins is due to the shortage of upstream raw materials, which has led to limited supply. Taking niacin as an example, the price of niacin increased from 35 yuan/kg to 70 yuan/kg from November 2016 to March 2017.
From 2018 to 2023, the higher profits of the vitamin industry continue to attract new entrants to the industry. As production capacity expands and supply continues to expand, vitamin prices continue to decline, and vitamin prices enter a downward cycle.
In 2021, overseas markets have stepped up their purchases of vitamins, resulting in quarterly overbought conditions. A similar situation also exists on the channel side. Therefore, since the beginning of 2022, the inventory of the vitamin industry has remained at a high level coupled with poor terminal demand. Due to the Russia-Ukraine war, the economy has fallen into recession, and vitamin prices have continued to fall in 2022.
In the first half of 2023, affected by overseas destocking and weak demand for vitamins, the prices of many types of vitamins continued to fall from low levels. By 2023, prices have fallen below historical lows, and some vitamin companies have already suffered losses.
Starting from May 2023, the prices of some varieties will begin to rise. This round of price growth is mainly related to manufacturers' production cuts to protect prices and changes in the supply pattern. VA, VE, D3, B1, B2, B3, B6, B12, product prices have increased significantly.
Our vitamin report only represents the view of Beijing Jingmu Group Corporation.
VA Price rising sharply
On July 2, the market said that the cooling water intake device of DSM's Swiss factory was affected by floods and mudslides, and the factory was closed. The impact time has yet to be assessed. On July 3, the market reported that a manufacturer's VA1000 quotation had been raised to USD25/kg. According to Agence France Presse reported on July 30th, an explosion occurred at a major factory of BASF, which is located in Ludwigshafen. It’s said the factory mainly produces VA and VE. All of VA manufacturers stopped VA quotation, and it’s hard to get VA quotation in the market now, the traders is taking wait-and-see attitude to wait for the VA manufactures quotation. VA manufacturer’s VA500 quotation was USD40/kg on August 5. It feels like history repeats itself. A fire accident occurred at BASF's citral plant in Ludwigshafen, Germany on Oct 31, 2017 The supply of vitamin A was extremely short, and VA price rose to Eur350/kg, an increase of more than 10 times. Some insiders predict that VA will once again stage a jaw-dropping performance before Wanhua VA are fully launched. On August 5, VA500 was quoted at CNY320/kg ( USD40/kg) in Chinese market. On August 7, BASF issued a statement stating that from now on, the delivery of products such as VA, VE and carotenoids at the factory will be affected by force majeure. The accident caused damage to the device, causing the suspension of production and supply interruption of the above-mentioned products. Cleaning, inspection and Repair work has started. BASF currently expects the restart of the plant to take longer. There’s few VA1000 stock in the market, VA 1000 market price is at the range from USD54/kg to USD60/kg.
D3 price increased sharply
New production standard for vitamin D3 has been implemented from July 1, 2020. According to the new standard, the starting raw material of vitamin D3 oil must be lanolin cholesterol, which limits the use of brainstem cholesterol, and lanolin becomes the only legal source of raw material for the production of vitamin D3. 25% of the cholesterol produced by Garden is provided to DSM as raw material for D3 production. The D3 produced by DSM European factories is for its own use, and the raw materials purchased from NHU are supplied to Adisseo and BASF. Most of Vitamin D3 is produced in China, and Garden controlled most of D3 raw material, So it’s very easy for Garden to increase D3 price. supply of the raw material for D3, cholesterol is very tight, D3 prices are firm and active. Tianxin raised the D3 quotation to FOB USD40/kg on July 22, and NHU also quoted the same price. The transaction price of D3 this week is USD30/kg. D3 market is active in purchasing and selling, with a wide range of quotations and a rapid increase in transactions; D3 market price is around USD30/kg.
VE price rising sharply
On May 21, the market said that the DSM factory would suspend production for two months for maintenance.NHU VE factory started summer maintenance from early July to early September. ZMC started maintenance for two months from Mid-July. In July, the DSM Swiss factory was closed due to weather conditions. Beisha VE production line plans to shut down for maintenance for 8-10 weeks from the end of August. On July 29, an explosion occurred at BASF's factory in Ludwigshafen, southwest Germany. On August 5, the market said that a Chinese manufacturer quoted VE at CNY150/kg (USD18.6). BASF issued a statement on August 7 that the delivery of VA, VE and other products at the factory will be affected by force majeure from now on, and it is expected that it will take a long time to restart the factory. VE market price is at the range from USD18/kg to USD20/kg.
K3 price keep increasing
K3, the price of raw chromium ore has increased recently, and most K3vmanufacturers have stopped quotation and signing new contract. It is expected that the price of K3 will continue to rise. On July 17, it was said that K3 MSB price increased to USD14.5/kg, K3MNB increased to USD16/KG. Due to the increased raw materials price, On August 13, the market said that one manufacturer raised the price of K3 MSB to USD16/KG, and K3 MNB to USD18.6/kg. The market quotations increased.
VC price dropped slightly
On April 22, the market said that NHU planned to start maintenance from early May to October. On May 22, the market reported that the VC production line of CSPC was scheduled to be shut down for maintenance from June to September. Luwei began to suspend production for four months on June 15 for maintenance.
On June 20, the market said that NHU VC99 price was USD4/kg. On June 24, the market said that CSPC ’s VC 99 quotation had been raised to USD4.3/kg.
Recently, the price of VC has dropped slightly. The main reason is that some traders have transferred funds to VA, VE, and Group B. They are eager to cash in and change items to stock up, so the price of VC has dropped slightly. VC manufacturers are very willing to raise VC prices, and there are currently no signs of a decline. Transaction VC 99 price is USD3.3/kg, VC97 is USD3.5/kg,V C35 is USD2.1/kg.
B1 price increased sharply
B1 In September 2023, the price of B1 dropped to a historical low, and the manufacturer was at a loss. Under the principle of manufacturers reducing production to protect prices, B1 prices began to rise. Coupled with the rising demand for raw materials, B1 prices continue to rise. On May 31, the market said that some manufacturers' quotations had been raised to USD23/kg. On July 4, it said that Tianxin started summer maintenance of B1 production line for two months since mid-July. On July 15, the market said that Tianxin quoted B1 mono to USD25.5/kg. Market price is around USD24/kg.
B2 price rising steadily
B2 Due to new entrants, the number of B2 manufacturers has increased, and there is still some inventory in the market, the price of B2 has been hovering at a low level. B2 manufacturers implement the principle of reducing production and raising prices. There are currently no signs of price downside. On March 4, 2024, the market said that FY B2 80% quotation was raised to FOB USD13.5/kg. B2 80% market price is around USD12.3-12.5/kg.
B3 price rising
As pyridine prices hover at low levels, pyridine production is reduced. Trimethylpyridine is an attendants of pyridine, so Trimethylpyridine production is reduced. Trimethylpyridine is the most important raw material of B3 productin, so the supply of B3 raw materials is tight. As price of Trimethylpyridine rise, B3 prices also rise. Redpond raised Nicotinamide to USD6/kg on Aug 12. B3 manufactures stopped quotation and signing new orders. B3 price is mainly affected by Trimethylpyridine , so we need to pay attention to the production status of pyridine in the future.
Choline chloride Small price fluctuations
After the price of trimethylamine fell to a periodic low of CNY5,400 /ton(USD663/mt) on July 2, it began to rise slightly on July 5. Recently, the prices of trimethylamine and ethylene oxide, the main upstream raw materials for choline chloride, have started to rise from the bottom. Overall, although the prices of trimethylamine and ethylene oxide have rebounded from the bottom recently, manufacturers are still generally in a state of loss. It is expected that there will still be room for upward growth in the future. Due to overcapacity and sluggish downstream demand, the room for growth is expected to be limited. Choline chloride will mainly increase in the short term with digestive raw materials. Driven by upstream raw materials, it may show a stable to strong operating trend. It is necessary to pay close attention to the price trend of upstream raw materials, downstream demand and changes in manufacturers' mentality. Choline Chloride prices are as follows: CC50%, USD515/mt, CC 60%, USD 570/mt, CC 70% USD 635/mt, CC 75%liquid, USD635/mt.
Calcium pantothenate price rising slightly
Driven by the high profits of calcium pantothenate in 2021, many new B5 manufacturers have appeared on the market. In order to suppress new manufacturers, the price of calcium pantothenate began to fall off a cliff in July 2022. B5 prices have been hovering at the bottom. Some B5 manufacturers stopped quotation on August 13, and market purchases and sales improved. On August 14, XINFA quoted B5at USD7.2/kg, and limited orders were signed. Mainstream manufacturers are willing to raise prices, B5 market price is around USD7.0/kg.
B6 price keep rising
Tianxin stopped quotation, Huazhong stopped production, and market inventory gradually decreased. The upward price trend is obvious and will continue to rise until next year. Tianxin vitamin production lines have been undergoing summer maintenance for 2 months since mid-July. On August 2, the market said that a B6 manufacturer quoted a price of USD20.5/kg.
Biotin price at the bottom
Biotin price is at the historical low. Some manufacturers has stopped biotin production. The main reason is that the competition among the manufacturers.In addition to the production capacity is too large and the market demand is poor.
Biotin price has been at the bottom. All of biotin manufacturers are in the state of loss. biotin does not see signs of rising in the short term. Biotin price is around USD4/kg.
Inositol price stable
Prices are slowly falling due to overcapacity.Inositol market price is around USD6/kg.
Folic Acid price stable
Due to the high pollution and the manufacturer's quotation being close to the cost line, the manufacturers willingness of the production is not strong. It is difficult for prices of Folic acid to fall due to increased production costs. Niutang has no Folic acid inventory and will stop production for summer maintenance from early August.It is difficult for prices to fall due to increased production costs.Folic acid price is stable.Market price is around USD22.5/kg.
B12 Price rising steadily
B12 prices are hovering at the bottom. The manufacturer's quotation is lower than the cost line, and the B12 manufacturer is at the state of loss. Some manufacturers adopt the principle of reducing production and holding prices. Yuxing quoted B12 1% at USD14.6/kg, Kingvit quoted at USD16/kg. B12 prices are rising steadily.
Lysine
Lysine HCL prices has been steady for some time , currently first-tier manufacturers such as Meihua quote about FOB USD 1420-1440, and some other brands quote about FOB USD1370-1380 . Lysine Sulphate 70% price for main brands is about FOB USD685-700. Due to weak demand , it would keep steady and see no signs of price increasing yet.
Threonine
Due to tight supply, L-Threonine started to increase , this week it increased about 20 dollars /mt , current price around FOB USD1340-1360. It’s supposed to be steady and in strong trend.
DL-Methionine
DL-Methionine finally started to decrease after a year long increasing of prices. Recent demand of DLM is weak and some traders eager to sell their stock, price decreased to about FOB 2600-2650. The trend is still weak.
Valine
L-Valine is in bottom line for a long time , more than 10 manufacturers make the supply too sufficient , plus the soybean meals price at very low level. Currently see no signs of increasing yet. Main maufacturers quote about FOB USD 1650-1690.
Isoleucine
L-Isoleucine price is at historically low level, because of new enterers and low soybean meals prices. L-Isoleucine prices is largely connected with soybean meal prices. When soybean meal prices low, more soybean meal will be used in feed addtives and less L-Isoleucine will be used, vice versa. So currently L-Isoleucine prices keeps decreasing to historically low level. We should keep attention to soybean meal prices, if it starts to increase, L-Isoleucine would also increase soon. Now main manufacturers prices about FOB USD3400-3450 .
Arginine
This year L-Arginine prices trend is decreasing. There is new manufacturer, also other factory expanding their capacity from this Aug, so supply is getting sufficient, and requirements not increasing. Currently main manufacturers prices about USD3800-3880.
Tryptophan
L-Tryptophan supply is getting tight , factories started to stop quotation or increase prices , and some factories require client to buy other amino acids also if they want to buy L-Tryptophan . Current prices about FOB USD7220-7260.
